Le salon géopolitique de Passion-Histoire

Depuis plusieurs mois, Zelensky demande avec insistance la livraison des missiles ATACMS. Biden a refusé. Mais il n'est pas impossible qu'il change d'avis dans quelques semaines (ou dans quelques mois).

Le projet ASAP est indispensable dans une perspective de guerre longue.

J'ai vu un officier supérieur français qui se demandait comment les experts ex-officier ou officier en activité qui viennent sur les plateaux TV semblent ignorer qu'en temps de guerre ou de conflits on garde secrètes le plus longtemps possibles certaines informations.

J'ignore si vous savez ce qu'est la raspoutitsa, c'est la période de la boue due aux pluies d'automne.

Il est trop tôt pour dire si cette "contre-offensive" est un échec.
Elle sera un échec si la situation reste figée. Elle sera un "demi-échec" si l'armée ukrainienne prend le contrôle de Tokmak. Elle sera une réussite si l'armée ukrainienne prend le contrôle de Melitopol. Cette dernière hypothèse (Melitopol) est improbable dans les 6 mois à venir.
Pendant l'automne les opérations vont s'interrompre. Elles reprendront en décembre si la température baisse suffisamment pour geler le sol.

Pendant l'automne les opérations vont s'interrompre. Elles reprendront en décembre si la température baisse suffisamment pour geler le sol.

Hélas, La Palice est mort,
Il est mort devant Pavie ;
Hélas, s'il n'était pas mort,
Il serait encore en vie

(...) raspoutitsa, c'est la période de la boue due aux pluies d'automne. Durant la guerre germano-soviétique, les opérations s'arrêtaient parce qu'il était impossible de manoeuvrer

Pendant l'automne les opérations vont s'interrompre. Elles reprendront en décembre si la température baisse suffisamment pour geler le sol.

Les fameux missiles dont vous parlez ne changeront pas la donne, ils ont une portée plus longue et permettraient de frapper l'intérieur de la Russie, sur le terrain, ils ne changeront rien.

Les fameux missiles dont vous parlez ne changeront pas la donne, ils ont une portée plus longue et permettraient de frapper l'intérieur de la Russie, sur le terrain, ils ne changeront rien.

Biden Told Zelensky U.S. Is Willing to Provide Long-Range ATACMS Missiles
Small number of the missiles will be sent to Ukraine initially and more could come later
Updated Sept. 22, 2023 8:03 pm ET

WASHINGTON—President Biden has told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that he is willing to provide advanced long-range, surface-to-surface missiles to help Kyiv with its counteroffensive, U.S. officials say.
Officials said that a small number of missiles from the U.S. Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, will be sent in coming weeks and more could be provided later.
Ukraine has long sought the missiles, which could blast Russian supply lines, logistics depots and headquarters far behind the front lines. Their importance for Kyiv has grown since supplies of long-range cruise missiles from the British and French have begun to dwindle.
The U.S. provision of ATACMS could also encourage Germany to provide its Taurus long-range cruise missile. Berlin has indicated that it prefers to move with Washington in providing new types of military aid.
Biden and Zelensky met at the White House on Thursday to discuss Ukraine’s military needs and the state of Kyiv’s counteroffensive. Biden’s promise to Zelensky was previously reported by NBC News.
The missiles are fired from a mobile launcher that can strike between 100 and 190 miles away, depending on the model.
The Ukrainians have been appealing for ATACMS since the early days of the war. At first, the U.S. rebuffed Ukraine’s requests because the Biden administration was concerned that providing the weapon might risk escalating the conflict.
To address the U.S. fears of escalation, Ukrainian officials signaled that they are prepared to offer assurances that the ATACMS won’t be used to strike Russian territory.
The Pentagon was also concerned that it couldn’t provide ATACMS from U.S. stocks without reducing the supply the Defense Department needed for potential conflicts in Asia, Europe and the Middle East.
But those worries were alleviated when the administration decided in July to send cluster munitions to Ukraine. That move expanded the supply of ATACMS missiles that could potentially be sent, as some variants of missiles carry warheads that hold cluster munitions.
The ATACMS missiles would add to Ukraine’s ability to launch longer-range strikes during the winter months, which would make it more difficult for Russia to shore up its defenses. The Biden administration has taken a fresh look in recent weeks at providing the missile, which included a recent meeting of Cabinet-level national security officials.
ATACMS missiles can be fired from advanced Himars mobile rocket launchers, which have already been sent to Ukraine to launch shorter-range guided rockets.
When the Ukrainian counteroffensive began in June, U.S. and Ukrainian officials hoped Ukrainian forces would reach the Sea of Azov and sever the land bridge that Russia uses to supply its forces in Crimea.
Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, acknowledged this week that the Ukrainian offensive had moved “a little bit slower than previously anticipated.”
Even if Ukrainian forces don’t reach the southern coast, however, further advances could allow them to attack Russian supply lines with rockets and artillery. Earlier this week, Ukrainians armored vehicles breached the main Russian defensive line near the village of Verbove in the Zaporizhzhia region in the southeast.
On Friday, a Ukrainian cruise struck the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the occupied city of Sevastopol, the latest of a series of strikes this month targeting Russia’s naval power.
Ukraine has been targeting Sevastopol, which Russia seized along with the rest of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, almost every night in recent weeks with drones or missiles.