Dans cette nouvelle mise à jour, l’historien militaire
Michel Goya fait le point sur la situation des forces en Ukraine au mercredi 5 octobre.
Citation:
Malgré les annonces de mobilisation partielle ainsi que le durcissement de ton de la part du Kremlin, l’armée ukrainienne continue à progresser sur le terrain.
[...] le corps expéditionnaire russe en Ukraine n’a plus beaucoup de chances, limité dans sa simple capacité à remplacer les pertes énormes, à la motivation souvent surtout liée à l’« esprit de corps » de régiments et brigades en décomposition croissante et accumulant désormais plutôt les échecs.
[...] Si les 200 000 mobilisés annoncés par le ministre Choïgou sont envoyés tout de suite et par petits paquets directement dans les unités de combat sur la ligne de front — et les unités ne sont pas assez nombreuses pour être beaucoup ailleurs —, ils ne les renforceront pas, mais au contraire les plomberont.
Source : Michel Goya
https://legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2022/10/ ... spectives/* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Le compte rendu du Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
Citation:
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, OCTOBER 16
Key Takeaways
• Several Russian sources reported renewed Ukrainian assaults in the Kherson direction and Ukrainian sources reported higher-than-average numbers of daily shelling and missile strikes, but Ukrainian forces are maintaining operational silence about any operations.
• Ukrainian military officials stated on October 16 that Russian forces are falsely claiming to have captured several towns near Bakhmut in the past several days, but Ukrainian forces have held their lines against Russian attacks. Russian forces are likely falsifying claims of advances in the Bakhmut area to portray themselves as making gains in at least one sector amid continuing losses in northeast and southern Ukraine.
• Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate announced a $100,000 bounty for the capture of prominent Russian milblogger and former proxy commander Igor Girkin and confirmed his presence in Ukraine, stating “it is known that one of the most famous Russian terrorists has decided to renew his participation in the war against our state.”
• Russian and Belarusian sources continued to report Russian men and material entering Belarus.
• Ukrainian sources reported Russian occupation officials in Kherson City are stepping up filtration measures against Ukrainian partisans and accelerating efforts to evacuate key materials and personnel from Kherson to Crimea.
• Unknown assailants attacked a military commissariat in the suburbs of Moscow with a Molotov cocktail on October 16.
• Local Russian authorities in Krasnodar Krai reportedly intend to mobilize 1,000 more people by December 2022 and discussed proposals to redirect funding from entertainment events so supply mobilized personnel, seemingly contradicting Putin’s announcement that mobilization will conclude by the end of October 2022.
• Poor medical care in both frontline and rear-area Russian units is exacerbating already dire morale problems.